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  • thakurrajiv
    07-30 12:02 PM
    You can trade commodities like stocks by taking a directional bet on long term price movement. But this is what you need to consider. Stocks always trade in Spot. If you buy MSFT you own shares of Microsoft today. Although single stock futures (SSF) are available now we will not look at derivatives right now.

    Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
    Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.

    The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.

    So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.

    Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
    Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
    If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is �delta� units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)

    If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.

    This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the �Alpha�. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:

    E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon

    Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
    alphais the excess return
    betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
    epsalonis error term or un explained return.

    (Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)

    This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.

    And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.

    Best of luck!!

    Again a great post. Just want to comment that be careful with ETF's too. Most of the ETF's are not physical commodity holders. They play in futures and OTC swap markets.
    I have looked hard to find ETF's or MF's fwhich are pure commodity holders e.g gold, silver etc.I still have not found good ones. The closest I could get was some portfolio of mix of real assets and futures. Most of the ETFs are again leveraged and kind of trap for average investors.
    There are a few hedge funds or big funds which might offer pure plays but those tend to have huge entry investment requirement basically making them inaccessible to individual small investors.





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  • gveerab
    11-01 11:59 AM
    For all of you who have send me a pvt. message asking me how to reach IO @ TSC, here are the steps:

    1) Call Customer Service @ 1 800 375 5283
    2) Continue in english, hit 1
    3) To check the status, hit 2
    4) Know your receipt number, hit 1
    5) Enter Receipt number, and then for SRC, hit 1
    6) Confirm Receipt Number, hit 1
    7) You will now hear the status of your case. At this point, hit 3 to "Report a problem".

    Here is the trick - now you will hear 4 options. I believe # 3 is "If your case is outside the processing time..." and # 4 is for "If you have filed several cases and have received a decision on....". You want to hit # 4 and you will be connected to an IO at TSC.

    Just a word of caution: You will be talking to an Immigration Officer @ TSC so please be very polite. Some officers will tell you that they cannot give you any information, or you should be calling Customer Service number, simply say 'Thank You' and hang up. It might take days/weeks before you reach an IO who would be willing to help.

    Again, the sequence is:
    Call the customer service number.
    Press 1, 2, 1, Enter Receipt Number, Hit 1 for SRC, Hit 1 to confirm RN, 3 to report a problem, 4 to connect to an officer @ TSC.





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  • garamchai2go
    12-13 09:50 PM
    garanchai2go: did you get your passport yet?

    Nope. I sent an email to Consulate. Tried reaching them..but no luck. VFS asked me to check back at 3:30 pm IST again..it seems they get the passport from consulate at 3:30 pm every day. Keeping my fingures crossed.





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  • gc_chahiye
    11-01 02:14 PM
    Any idea why it's important for the attorneys to notify USCIS that I'm no longer a H worker? The petition would expire next March anyway...

    Its a USCIS regulation (8 CFR 214 2 (h) 11) that your employer/lawyers are following, which requires informing USCIS if you are no longer working in H1B status for any reason (got a GC, layoff etc):

    (11) Revocation of approval of petition--

    (i) General.

    (A) The petitioner shall immediately notify the Service of any changes in the terms and conditions of employment of a beneficiary which may affect eligibility under section 101(a)(15)(H) of the Act and paragraph (h) of this section. An amended petition on Form I-129 should be filed when the petitioner continues to employ the beneficiary. If the petitioner no longer employs the beneficiary, the petitioner shall send a letter explaining the change(s) to the director who approved the petition.

    http://www.uscis.gov/propub/template.htm?view=document&doc_action=sethitdoc&doc_hit=1&doc_searchcontext=jump&s_context=jump&s_action=newSearch&s_method=applyFilter&s_fieldSearch=nxthomecollectionid|SLB&s_fieldSearch=foliodestination|8cfrsec2142h11&s_type=all&hash=0-0-0-12391

    If that link does not work you can find the CFR here:
    http://www.uscis.gov/propub/ProPubVAP.jsp?dockey=cab75104b7d73e7b6bca9c886cc72 455
    and dig through to the regulation.



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  • jnraajan
    03-13 11:29 AM
    WaldenPond is too nice to answer your question. Personally, I wouldn't consider it obligatory to answer a specific question by someone who cannot volunteer due to "Personal Reason", whatever that may mean. If you cannot volunteer, cannot participate in IV's action items, cannot contribute, then you are most welcome to use IV's portal to get answers to your questions or get other kind of information - but do not expect updates from anyone as your right!

    IV is not a top-down organization and if you think that it is becoming like Immigration Portal then partially it is due to people like you who do not want to participate but just want 'updates'.

    I completely disagree with your message here. You dont even know what the personal reason for not participating in a state chapter is. I, for one, am unable to join a state chapter, because , the nearest chapter is 400 miles and 2 states away. What good would it do to me to join something that I can never be part of. I wanted to start a state chapter here in my place, but I couldnt find any useful resources on how to do it. May be eb3_nepa has some reasons like it.

    Like you said, IV is not a top-down organization, which means everyone is responsible for everyone. I dont see anything wrong with eb3_nepa's questions. He wanted to know what is going on. I am sure there are lots of people around here who has the same questions.

    The Admin Fixes letter campaign was a good initiative. But, the target date got moved twice, and now I dont even know when the end date is.

    May be IV should be a top-down organization. Any organization as big as IV would probably be better served with a Top Team. That team could probably elected by the community. I am confident, that most of our members wouldnt even mind spending a few extra bucks to pay a honarary amount to this team for their efforts and time. Then there will be more structure and accountability and action going on around here.

    I came to know about IV pretty late. When I did learn about IV and joined IV, I was a very enthusiastic participant. Of late, I do believe IV is fading away. I dont see so many activities going on around here. Like eb3_nepa and few others said, IV is right now becoming just another Immigration portal. It is starting to lose its identity.

    After doing all the hard work to gather a mass or like minded people, it will be shameful, if IV drifts away from its stated aim. So, may be it is time for every member, including core members like you to refect upon things and come up with ways to make this organization more transparent and more accessible for people like me.

    Like Waldenpond said, it is probably not wise to list all the items going on in the portal. The work around to that would be, we can add another membership type which is more restrictive. This membership group will have only members whose identities have been verified. Once this group is created, IV can post all the happenings accessible to them. This will help people like me who are unable to be part of any state chapter to know what is happening at IV. Keep our sprits high.

    Thank you





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  • longq
    02-11 05:17 PM
    By doing what you are suggesting

    c) you only benefit EB-2 India/China (at the expense of EB-3 ROW)

    So, you make no difference whatsoever to huge number of EB-applicants (b), and you benefit (c) at the expense of (a).

    I hope you see that this is not a good solution for the majority of EB-applicants. With this kind of cannibalization, the only people who have any incentive to stay with IV would be EB-2 India/China.

    We have to work to increase the size of the pie here, and not engage in a zero sum game.

    This is completly wrong statement. Actually, it is otherway. The EB3-ROW is currently enjoying at the expense of EB2-India and China. It is enjoying not only in this year. It is happening since 2005. If you have doubt, please visit DOS website and anayze the statistics right from 1999 to 2005. Furthermore, all the AC21 numbers (about 150,000 unused visas) that was captured in previous years (1999-2001) that came from unused EB2 and EB1 numbers. Theoritcally, these numbers should have been used to reduce backlog in EB2 first, then it should go to EB3. Since no one cared about this, EB3-ROW was free riding in EB2 numbers despite heavy demand in EB2.

    Everyone knows that EB3 is heavily retrogressed compare to EB2. No doubt about that. The only solution for this is to increse the numbers. Everyone is working hard. However, it does not mean that one should ignore how DOS/USCIS mis-interpertinng the law and doing harm to EB2 Indians and Chinese. No one here is to sacrifice for EB3-ROW. Fighting to eliminate retrogression and understaing the correct interpretation of law and rule is totally two different issues. Please do not confuse between those.



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  • mirage
    08-25 12:31 PM
    There is Buy Rate and a Sell Rate. The Buy rate is about 50-60 Cents less than the Sell rate. You get the buy rate when you send money...

    I have sent money using icicibank's M2I service . Usually they take 5 working days to remit the money(atleast 8 days to transfer). I made four transactions last week(mon, tue, wed, thu) and they already remitted the money using low conversion rate.

    It just took less than three days to remit the money this time. Bank deliberately did this just to steal money from me. I have lost more than 35 paise per dollar and it comes close to Rs 10,000. This is ridiculous and its a big robbery.

    How do i get my money back? How do i make a compliant about this bank? They have no one to assist me over the phone.

    What to do now?. Rs 10,000 may look too small for us. But how can we let banks to act like a criminals.

    Any help/suggestion/comment?





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  • PDOCT05
    07-19 09:53 AM
    mine 2 - rwilliams at 7:55 cool ...thanks some one on the same boat..Mine was received on july 3rd at 9:02AM.



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  • aycy
    04-22 11:22 AM
    $10 from me via paypal. I am sorry as this is how much I can contribute at the moment. Thanks to the Philly backlog (stalled career switch), my debts are up to my neck. Hope you guys understand.

    aycy:o





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  • eb3_nepa
    04-18 09:22 AM
    Considering that there are more than 2000 members who havent contributed yet. Even $10 per member wud mean $20K straight away. Common guys, this is tax refund season. Surely we can all send in atleast between $10 and $20. That is cheap change considering most of our life styles. Internet access costs more than that, Filling your car with a tank of regular gas costs more than that. ;)



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  • GCard_Dream
    01-31 11:21 AM
    If you are not using a sub labor and filing 140 in a week or so, there is nothing for you to worry about.

    Thanks for the reply.

    I am not using substitution labor. I do not condone any one who does it for monetary reasons.

    So the rule hasn't taken affect yet huh! I will definitely send my application out in premium processing this week. Just worried that I have passed the 45-day time period :( . Does my I-140 have to be approved before this rule is implemented, or just that my application needs to be filed ?





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  • gjoe
    01-30 05:19 PM
    I sent that question in for the debate about 2 weeks ago. Glad it is on the list. I cannot access this link now for some reason

    I guess we should use chances like these to get our agenda heard by the people and the govt. There are going to be atleast 3 more presidential debates we should try to get this question asked atleast in a couple of them. We can modify the question to make it more broad, but still keep the focus on legal immigration problems by highlighting it.

    PS: You have earned yourself some green ;) I mean rep points from me



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  • gsc999
    07-14 02:49 AM
    It is good to see so many members sign up for tomorrow. I am expecting a huge turn out.

    If you are still a maybe, you just might be missing out on being part of this unprecedented rally by legal immigrants in San Jose.

    Volunteers: Please try to come to the venue at 10:30 a.m. for briefing on assignments.

    Lets make this a success!





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  • bugsbunny
    04-17 08:16 PM
    The fact that he's asking whether he qualifies for one, on an online forum,shows his level of skill and education. Enough said :)

    wow! you can't even ask your peers for honest feedback without being judged. :(



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  • borgho
    06-08 09:47 AM
    I wanted to add a few points again - after reading the previous posts from Alien2006 and Chanduv23.

    To alien2006' posts I want to add the following:

    Funny how many of us have noticed the flow of suggestive ideas that we are given right from the time we start the H1 process - back in our home country:

    1. Prospective H1 employer suggests the following (nothing in writing of course):

    "Great. You are very smart and deserving. We have choosen you to be one of the lucky few whom we will take to America this year after filing your H1-B visa. Once you land there on the H1-B visa, everything will be great. You will have a job in a few days with one of our clients (Buzzer - this is one heck of a lie - there are no confirmed jobs - one has to go through the whole process of interviews again to find a project where you will be accepted on a contract position. Rarely I have seen H1 companies who have projects of their own for their employees...but no one tells us that!!!). After you have worked with us for about 6 or 7 months we will file your green card and you will have your green card within 3 - 4 years. You will be all set with the wonderful American Dream in less than 6 years which is the validity of your H1 visa!!!. (Buzzer - One more great turd of BS - Yes they will apply our green card...BUT they may or may not pay for it...they will apply but there are 195,000 H1s and only 7000 Green cards per year for India - guess what MOST OF us will only dream of a green card and may never get one).

    Folks here shout at us about why we "expect" to get a green card when we "know" that we are here on a temporary H1 visa - WRONG - we know that H1 is temp - but we also are made to think that H1 is the first natural step towards a green card. Once we get here its a big wake-up call after about couple of years on how false that premise is.

    Also - if we are "temps" no one - employers, for that matter - any organisation that we come accros in our "immigrant lives" here in the US try to highlight that YOU Are TEMPS...WE JUST GOT YOU HERE TO BE A TEMP WORKED, EXPLOIT YOU IN WHATEVER WAY WE CAN, MAKE A QUICK BUCK ON YOU...and then put you on the sinking broken boat called "GC process" and forget about you!!!. No wonder we think we think that we deserve to a fair and simple GC process - but it should be made simple and fair - coz thats the sublimal message we have been dumped with for the past 6 or 7 years...its now time for them to come through on their promises.

    To Chanduv23 post - Yes I agree things are much better now...in the last 10 or 15 years....and probably thats the reason more people want to come here and work here...I know I love my job, the people here and the whole way of life here.





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  • seahawks
    07-17 11:00 PM
    signed.



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  • Desertfox
    03-12 08:39 PM
    Just curious why you cannot join a state chapter?

    I don't think we are not hearing news from IV. The Admin fixes campaign has been the most important effort these days. So now we all need to give IV an update if we sent our letters. I would not care about core members who were old and new. I really dont care about them because I think IV is all of us and not core folks. I just care about if IV is doing good work and helping everyone.

    Why would you be curious to know about someone else's personal problems/issues? Your post sounds more like my daughter hypothetically saying that she doesn't care about whether her grandparents/parents are alive or dead, as long as she is there and she has a family to feed and take care of her...

    Thanks chanduv23 for update on pappu & logiclife!





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  • lost_in_gc_land
    01-31 08:15 AM
    Congratulations...and am happy for you.





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  • scorpion00
    08-13 05:56 PM
    What a stupid post.
    Do you really think that all EB3 people are no US-educated? EB2/EB3 is dictated by job requirements and not the actual qualifications of someone. I am graduate of a top ranked US university but applied in EB3 since my job didn't require M.S and my company didn't want to manipulate the job requirements.
    I am sure there are many more like me who were qualified for EB2 but applied in EB3.
    If this is the best you can come up, I really hope that this was your first and last post.





    DSLStart
    09-17 01:24 PM
    Why not? I know Bill clinton was hooked up to some Indian restaurants in DC/NVA.

    Decent Indian restaurants in DC?? Are you kidding me? :p





    abhijitp
    04-19 09:38 AM
    Dear Friends,

    Got Green cards and Welcome notices for me and my wife .
    Surprisingly no uscis e-mail and online status is still "initial review"

    Our journey in short :

    How long in US : 10+ years

    First Labor in 2002 . Changed job in three years before approval of labor
    Second Labor in 2004 . Approved in 2007
    Filed I140 and 485 - in July 2007

    Since then I was enjoying EAD / AP with no complain .

    I donate to IV now and then , but for some reason only once (for few days) got access to IV-Donor Forum . But always had a faith that IV is doing good work .
    From non-donor IV forums and other forums I noticed that USCIS are transferring leftover Visas to other EB categories . I waited to see some thing coming to EB3 but ......nothing came .
    My Lawyer told me that I can port to EB2 and it is a normal a process.

    1. New Perm
    a. Filed in Feb and approved in 10 days ( Prep work takes 3 to 4 months before filing )
    b. Requirement : 4 years Engineering + 5 years minimum experience

    2. EB2 I140 (TSC)
    a. Filed in March - Premium Processing
    b. My Lawyer sent interfiling letter along with I140 filing
    c. Approved in 7 days (A# and Priority Date retained)
    d. Same week got Green Cards and Welcome Notices:) - Super-fast Approval
    e. No email and no updates on USCIS website

    Not sure about the USCIS and Lawyer fees . My company paid for every thing.
    Hope every one get the desired freedom asap and don't have to wait like me for 10+ years

    Wish you all the best ......to everyone who is waiting for GC.


    Thanks,
    Jimytomy

    Congratulations, your hard work and patience have paid off!



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